Why Experts Say Now Is The Time To Buy Medical Office Buildings

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Despite all the doom and gloom of the news about the office sector, one component remains strong: medical office buildings.

It is buoyed by a stable clientele, long-term leases, and a slow pace of new entries. Even better, the buildings’ tenants can rely on a steady flow of customers in need of care. The flow has even increased as a result of passage of the Affordable Care Act, an aging population, and advances in medical technology that enable more procedures to be delivered in lower-cost, more efficient outpatient settings.

And investors are paying attention, according to the just-released 2024 report “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” issued by PWC and the Urban Land Institute. In total, the U.S. healthcare industry represents 17% of GDP. Outpatient care and care provided in medical office buildings is a significant share of the total.

“The sector has also been shifting to a retail mind-set, where hospital systems and providers look to attract new patients and build market share in new areas, contributing to the increased demand for high-quality medical space,” the report noted.

For landlords, medical offices are practically ideal tenants. They may sign leases of 15-20 years and are likely to renew them in order to remain close to their patient base.

“Typically, the renewal rate is 80% or more and rent growth generally ranges between two and three percent a year,” the report stated. “These dynamics have helped the medical office sector maintain healthy fundamentals throughout economic cycles.”

Furthermore, occupancy has risen in recent years as space absorption has outpaced square footage added. The occupancy rate was 92.8% in 2Q 2023.

Nevertheless, “after reaching peak investment volumes of $30.2 billion (annual basis) in the third quarter of 2022, medical office transaction volume has since slowed to $20.2 billion as of the second quarter of 2023,” the report noted.

But while it has slowed, it has not stopped. Transaction volume totaled $4.7 billion in the first half of 2023 – lower than the $10.1 billion sold in the same period of 2022, but consistent with levels seen from 2018 through 2021. Few distressed sales have occurred. The report attributed the lower transaction volumes to a “disconnect” between sellers and buyers.

“But the stage is set for increases in volumes when buyers and sellers can better come together and the capital markets begin to normalize,” it said. “The medical sector is large and investable, comprising over 1.5 billion SF of current inventory. A substantial amount of opportunity exists for investors to take on more ownership.”

By square footage, over half the sector is owned by users – hospitals, providers, and physician groups. The rest is owned by REITs and private investors who use a variety of structures and vehicles to make it work, the report noted. Institutional investors often invest through operating partners, frequently vertically integrated regional or national firms that specialize in the development, acquisition and operation of medical office buildings and often have deep relationships with hospitals, health systems and physician groups.

Speculative development is rare, leaving inventory to increase at a pace driven by tenant demand, currently around 1% and seldom rising more than 2% a year.

The opinion of experts surveyed for the report is largely favorable. Some 48% recommended buying, 46.4% said hold, and just 5.8% said sell. And while 34.3% considered the sector overpriced, that was a much smaller percentage than viewed suburban and central-city offices as overpriced. Some 61.4% thought medical offices were fairly priced and 4.3% thought they were underpriced.

“The medical office sector has matured into an attractive and stable CRE asset class of its own,” the report concluded.

 

Source: GlobeSt

Medical Office Building Sector Remains Stable, Attractive

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Having weathered recent headwinds, the medical office building sector is seeing a return to more stable property fundamentals, according to a new Medical Office National Report from Institutional Property Advisors.

There was a COVID-driven fall-off in medical visits in 2020, but this has “generally dissipated,” the report states, adding that “medical office vacancy has stayed between 8 and 10 percent and, in June 2023, the rate was just 50 basis points above the long-term average.”

Rising construction costs have helped to prevent overbuilding, with medical office space totaling only 10.7 percent of the overall office pipeline. IPA points to a very different factor limiting the product type: “… the sector’s main challenge is not supply, but rather a health-care labor shortage.” The pandemic has exacerbated an existing worker shortage that may hinder practices seeking to expand to meet future medical care demand.

High interest rates have affected both deal flow and pricing. Transaction velocity in the MOB sector fell by more than 30 percent over the 12 months that ended in June.

“The average sale price has begun to recalibrate accordingly,” IPA reported, “dropping 3 percent from the high reached in 2022 to $295 per square foot for the yearlong span ended in June.”

MOB regional performance

MOB regional performance. Table courtesy of IPA Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve; Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; Moody’s

On top of that, a paucity of transactions, especially those of $10 million or more, have hampered price discovery.

Geographic Diversity

A variety of regions across the country split up top marks for different performance metrics.

The Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast (driven by Florida) lead in terms of low average vacancies, and the former is tops for a falling overall vacancy, having dropped by 40 basis points year-over-year. The Mountain States too have seen a sizable fall in overall vacancy, by 30 basis points.

Asking rents are highest (at $32.74) in the Pacific region, and lowest in the Midwest ($17.50). Rental growth was far and away the highest in the Central Plains region, with 7.8 percent year-over-year. The Northeast (4.6 percent) and Southeast (4.5 percent) were essentially tied for a distant second place.

 

Source: Commercial Property Executive

Senior Housing Demand Continues To Outpace New Supply

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The senior housing market appears set for a steady and ongoing recovery, with occupancy levels in 2024 expected to meet or exceed pre-pandemic levels, provided no unforeseen difficulties occur.

That is the conclusion of an analysis of 3Q 2023 data by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC).

Senior housing occupied stock is now 2.6% or 15,026 units above the pre-pandemic 1Q 2020 level, NIC found. Demand continued to outpace new supply for the ninth consecutive quarter. In primary markets, net absorption rose 1.3%, or 7,583 units, from the previous quarter and 4.3%, or 24,627 units, over the prior year. The stock of senior housing in these markets rose 0.4% from 2Q 2023, and 1.3% above the prior year, NIC stated.

However, construction remained below pre-pandemic levels, and the 11,133 units under construction in the year ended 3Q 2023 amounted to less than half the starts reported during all of 2019. A new measure of senior housing, the Absorption-to-Inventory Velocity ratio, stood at 28:10 for primary markets, which implies that for every 10 newly added units, 28 were absorbed. This indicates that the senior housing market has been able to absorb a significantly higher number of units than were added during the third quarter of 2023.

The senior housing all-occupancy rate rose to 84.4% in 3Q 2023. It remained below the 87.1% rate of 1Q 2020. However, it is expected to reach or exceed that level in 2024, NIC predicted. Risks remain in the form of economic uncertainty and the possibility of a future threat to public health.

However, current capital market conditions and the resulting lending environment, today’s relatively limited construction pipeline, and elongated delivery times of new projects suggest that supply growth is manageable and is not expected to outpace demand through 2024, the report noted.

It also pointed to differences in the all-occupancy rate between independent and assisted living facilities in primary markets. It stood at 86% for majority independent living properties, a 0.7% increase from 2Q 2023. For assisted living, it stood at 82.6%, up 0.9%. Though occupancy for both was above pandemic lows, in neither case did it reach pre-pandemic 1Q 2020 levels.

In secondary markets, though, the occupancy rate for majority assisted living facilities reached 84.3%, slightly above its 1Q 2020 level of 84.2%, indicating a full recovery explained by limited inventory growth and restrained supply pipelines. The one good thing that did emerge from the pandemic, NIC commented, is increased recognition of the value proposition that senior housing offers. It also highlighted the resilience and adaptability of senior housing operators.

 

Source: GlobeSt.