The 85,000-square-foot Aurora East Crossroads broke ground in March 2023. The three-story MOB building features a 19,000-square-foot ambulatory surgery center on the first floor.
The total number of uninsured in the US has reached a new low and the medical office asset class stands to benefit from it, according to Marcus & Millichap’s 2024 National Investment Office Forecast.
This robust demographic will need and seek more visits to healthcare providers, subsequently driving tenant demand for medical spaces, particularly in markets such as Louisville, Seattle-Tacoma, Portland, and Boston.
Those areas have sub-6.5 percent vacancy rates. Texas has the largest percentage of uninsured residents nationwide and carries an office vacancy rate above 15 percent in San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas-Fort Worth.
Arizona and Nevada, too, have high uninsured populations, with vacancies in Tucson, Phoenix, and Las Vegas above 12 percent.
In Florida, some metros notably refute this trend as the state’s uninsured rate is over 11 percent, but West Palm Beach and Miami-Dade have some of the lowest vacancies among major U.S. markets. Medical office projects are slated to constitute approximately 70 percent of the space completed in Tampa this year.
In 2023, fewer medical office assets changed hands than in 2022. However, transaction activity is above the 10-year average in most regions. An aging population will necessitate medical office expansions long-term.
Marcus & Millichap cited a challenged borrowing environment and said this pressure will likely ease in 2024 as many investors expect interest rate cuts.
“Additionally, private investors have become more active in the space as institutions pull back,” according to the report. “Deals in lower price tranches have increased the use of seller financing in some cases, circumventing lender-based headwinds.”
The report said that the new supply would fall to a nearly two-decade-low construction as it will be reduced by 8.5 million square feet to approximately 500,000 fewer square feet of medical office space this year compared to last. This will push total inventory up by just 0.7 percent.
“Limited additions will prevent any major supply headwinds going into 2024 and beyond as new starts decrease as well,” according to Marcus & Millichap.
Vacancy rates will climb by 20 bps to about 9.8%, according to the report. Meanwhile, medical office tenants will still grapple with a prevailing labor shortage, complicating operator expansion plans.
The average asking rent for medical office space will rise by 1.3% to $23.40 per square foot by December as new buildings come online, reaching a more than two-decade high. Metros such as West Palm Beach, Salt Lake City, and Portland are expected to lead the nation in rent growth, concurrent with local vacancy rates below the national average, according to the report.
Source: GlobeSt.
Vacancies? What vacancies? As medical offices go, the idea of unleased space is practically a foreign concept.
Thanks to an aging population that requires more care and the need for medical office visits when a patient is ill or has a chronic disease, medical offices remain in demand. As a result, in the first quarter of 2023, the national medical office vacancy rate was only 9.2% — just under half the 17.5% vacancy rate for traditional offices.
“From 2019 through the first quarter of 2023, vacancy in medical office properties has only risen 50 basis points nationally,” Marcus & Millichap reported in June.
The future outlook also seems healthy as the number of senior citizens increases and the amount of new medical office space being built remains limited. As of June, less than 12 million SF – or 1% of current inventory — was slated for 2023 delivery.
The report acknowledges, however, that availability depends on location-specific factors, such as resident demographics, existing local stock and metro-level construction pipelines.
Vacancy rates are especially low in warm weather markets which are experiencing an influx of retirees escaping cold-weather climates like Chicago or New York. The report cites a 190 basis-point drop in medical vacancy in the Dallas-Fort Worth area from 2019 to March 2023 “coinciding with a 17% surge in the metro’s age 65-plus cohort.” There was a similar pattern in other areas where the senior population grew more than 15%, such as West Palm Beach, San Antonio and Phoenix. Each saw vacancy falling by more than 200 basis points in the same period.
The strength of the medical office market is being bolstered by the entry of large retail chains such as Walmart Health. Walgreens has expanded into primary, specialty and urgent care following its $8.9 billion acquisition of Summit Health, while Amazon snapped up One Medical’s virtual, in-office and lab services. Other retailers entering the market could also boost demand for medical office space.
Post-Covid, medical office space has maintained an average sale price of just under $300 per SF. However, the report notes, dealmaking has slowed since the Fed began to raise interest rates. Uncertainty in the banking sector, which supplied over 75% of medical office financing in 2022, could also tighten lending.
On the other hand, medical office leases are generally signed for longer periods, reducing erratic swings, and healthcare is often non-discretionary. These factors, as well as telehealth and fewer labor challenges “could boost investor confidence in the long-term growth potential of the sector,” the report states.
Source: GlobeSt.
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