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Wiregrass Ranch Development Update In Pasco County Includes Orlando Health And Talks With Raymond James Financial

Wiregrass Ranch is a good barometer for patient money.

At 5,142 acres, the property, bordered by Bruce B. Downs Boulevard on the west, State Road 54 on the north and State Road 56 on the south, is slightly over 3 miles east-to-west. It is one of a dozen or so master-planned unit developments in Pasco County.

Wiregrass is entitled for 6 million square feet for office and medical office, 2.7 million for retail, and more than 1,000 hospital beds. Roughly half of that was built in 2019, a year before the pandemic when the Tampa Bay Business Journal last updated the master-planned development. The Porter family still owns and manages it. James “Wiregrass” Porter bought the property in 1937 and the Porter family has lived and worked on it since 1946. It wasn’t until 1972 that the family sold its first major portion on the northern edge of the property to build Saddlebrook Resort.

The Porters have demonstrated a careful approach to stewarding the land based on how it could best meet the family’s needs and enrich the community, owner JD Porter told the Business Journal in 2019.

That patience hasn’t budged,Porter said in a Business Journal interview alongside development partner Wiregrass COO Scott Sheridan last month. Being picky, or in other words, clear on its community goals, has meant saying no to many potential users.

Through Covid, there have been changes and newcomers. Raymond James Financial, which planned up to a million square feet of office space at the heart of Wiregrass, is still in limbo. But Orlando Health should soon break ground on a first $100 million phase for a hospital — adding to already fierce East Pasco competition with BayCare (a new hospital about to open) and AdventHealth, which was the first major Wiregrass project 10 years ago. Both sit a short distance from each other on Bruce B. Downs Boulevard. In Wiregrass, there are also two new standalone projects. Florida Cancer Specialists will build a $40 million, 60,000-square-foot facility to employ 240 people and there are other big users close on deals.

The following conversation has been edited for brevity and clarity. 

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: In the fall, you brought back some of the Wiregrass Mall land and have been clearing it for phase II. Tell us more.

James Porter: We bought that back from QIC, the Australian fixed-income fund. And [in the mall], we’ve given them office entitlements. They’re doing a WeWork type of space in the old Forever 21 space. We always have first right of refusal; or we control the entitlements, typically both to make sure that we can maximize the value not only of what we’re selling but down the road, too, to make sure that the market keeps up. I don’t know of anybody else that does that, but it’s actually played out very well and helps us manage the project’s expectations.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: You’ve long been deliberate about maintaining a high bar for what comes to Wiregrass.

Scott Sheridan: [The family] has the ability to be patient and make sure that they got the right partners involved in the project right. We’ve turned quite a few things away. Either it’s not the right time at the right fit for us, but we’re constantly making sure that we’re bringing high-quality brands and identity to Wiregrass. It is what JD and I and the family focus on.

James Porter: Some people are better at certain things than we are. We’re trying to learn as we go. Many of these [real estate holding] companies could be forced into a position and have to unload [property], or the market changes and they have to show 30% returns. We don’t have to do that. We stay in the game and manage that expectation. We’ve got 60% left of the project to build. We don’t need a failure.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: What else is news?

Scott Sheridan: You touched on Orlando Health. The size and scale of what they’re looking to develop will be impressive. Their first phase will be similar in size and scale as existing AdventHealth [Wesley Chapel hospital]. This will be their up to 300-bed hospital. It will be the hub of their spoke throughout the Tampa Bay area. So they’ll have other satellite facilities that will probably feed this hospital. But this is ground zero for their hospital presence.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: For Phase I, it’ll be close to $300 million?

James Porter: Yes. And at build-out we’re looking north of $750 million using today’s numbers. That’s impressive to me. Health care is definitely happening in the area. That world’s changed a whole lot. But seeing the impact that [AdventHealth Wesley Chapel hospital] had locally, all the hype with BayCare coming in – it’s set to open a couple of weeks – and then seeing [Orlando Health] come in and build something bigger than Advent, which has been open eight years. There’s definitely demand out there, but it’s a changing ballgame. They’re looking at numbers that we don’t, so we’re excited about that side of it.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: With no certificate of need rules, there’s the Wild West feel to the marketplace competition. But they have confidence.

Scott Sheridan: They are a pretty astute group, and they are looking at many demographics. They want to protect their revenue streams, obviously. So they’ve done exhaustive research about the growth that’s already in Wesley Chapel but also what’s happening [broadly in the market]. We thought it was obviously important to get some separation for them and put them on S.R. 56 [an east-west corridor], which makes a lot of sense as opposed to Bruce B. Downs [north-south corridor to the west, with two hospitals within a mile of each other]. Clearly, Bruce B. Downs is adequately covered right now.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: What’s the status of the Raymond James project?

James Porter: Their world completely changed. When we sat down before Christmas, they usually had 7,400-something employees in St. Pete. I think their best day since the start of Covid was just south of 1,400. Everybody’s feeling that pain because everybody tells me they’re producing at home like they should until they see the numbers and then they’re not. So they’re trying to figure out how to get people back in.

That is the general theme that we’ve heard from everybody out there. It’s an eye-opener with Raymond James. There’s another office group [we talk to] where they have 200,000 square feet, and they have had three people showing up for over a year now. And they are still paying up. How do you force somebody’s hand? That’s one in-common thing. How do you get people back? We’ve had active discussions with Raymond James.

Scott Sheridan: They’ll be out there.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: In some form. To the extent you can, take us into those conversations.

Sheridan: They may have 1,000 employees that live closer to [its Wiregrass site] than they do to Carillon and their existing employees.

James Porter: They have 800 or something people within 15 minutes of their site in Wiregrass. That’s a significant presence. But at the same time, how do you juggle that with how many of the 800 are actually showing up? That’s what Scott and I are feeling about it. I would rather them not do anything — I don’t want them to be oversized or undersized. They don’t need to have an empty building.

Scott Sheridan: So is it 50,000 [square feet] or 100,000? We’re not quite sure. They’re not quite sure. We’re focused on working through that with them here next few months and trying to understand that better.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: If you do get any of that land back, what’s out there that works for you?

Sheridan: That’s a good question. That being a major employment location for office, we’re having active conversations with many folks about that. There is not a ton of 300,000 or 400,000-square-feet guys anymore. We’ve got some office projects we recently permitted on the 56 corridor that we may consider bringing to market just as a test case and seeing what kind of demand is out there. We get many calls from folks that need five, 10, or 15,000 square feet. We think there’s an opportunity for a corporate-type park there, maybe a mixed-use with several retail and restaurants with it as well.

James Porter: We’re in a position to do that differently because we’re not just worried about that building. We can control 4,000 acres around it. We’re in the unique position to be able to program that with localized shops that people want to go to during lunch or businesses like that. I’m more excited about talking to 15 or 20, 10,000-square-foot users than a big 200,000-square-foot user because you can’t lose them all at once.

You’re going to have your ebb and flow. But if it’s going back to that, I think that really creates a better sense of place than this one major 800-pound gorilla that has got a lot of weight and can threaten to leave at times and do that.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: That’s more diversified and makes it easier to navigate economic cycles. What does that trend say about the state of the Pasco economy now and where you sit within it? There is a drumbeat to land high-skill, high-paying jobs. And we are thinking a lot about Moffitt’s goals and the need for thousands of scientists.

Scott Sheridan: Health care is a major driver. Like Moffitt, Advent and Orlando Health, they’re major employers. Those are typically significant-wage jobs. The county endeavors to get more lighter industrial and some of that stuff happening, and they’re having some success with that. But on a per square foot basis and tax basis and an employee revenue basis, they’re not even close to being as strong on getting more class-A office. Given our location, it’s really the economic hub for Wesley Chapel and Pasco, whereas some of that smaller office or industrial stuff on the outskirts, on S.R. 52, all makes sense. We we think that’s going to be great, but that’s not who we are. That’s why we talk more about whether we bring some of the first real class A office in the submarket here. There’s been some stuff up and down 54, and they’re struggling to get that occupancy. But costs have been so high that rent rates can’t quite get there. And so pushing the high 20s, and low 30s on rent is not uncommon. But in Wesley Chapel, it has been a little bit of a challenge.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: More Class-A office has been a big part of the future vision for Pasco.

James Porter: It’s weird for me to look at it because you talk about Moffitt. It is exciting. But we talked to Moffitt before Advent [Hospital Wesley Chapel] was even a thought. So I’ve seen what can happen. We were cutting edge with Advent. I think Moffitt pulled back and said, ‘hey, what’s out there?’ Now, we’ve got three other hospitals that will already open before them and they are already leasing out 50,000 square feet at Advent [Wesley Chapel]. I’ve got Moffitt at Wiregrass right now. Finally, everybody’s playing catch up and seeing what we saw, what the market recognized in us eight or 10 years ago. Fast forward from there, we’re seeing now that Pasco’s never really had the chance to see what it could be when it grows up. Two things happened. I think a lot of the big builders come in and they swiped up everything that could be good. They’re paying great numbers, but it never has a chance to see if that would work. But we’re in a unique position to do that. We got it structured where we haven’t sold all the residential. I could before we finished our meeting. I could pick up the phone, and we could sell it and it could be a really incredible number and it doesn’t matter to us. We will continue to roll it out and make sure it’s successful.

Now, we’ve got the medical office. Now let’s take the first spec office to market and see what’s out there. The demand is clearly there, but nobody’s really taken a – I wouldn’t even say it’s a risk. The way that I look at it, it’s not a risk to us at all. I think other people can look at it, especially with the costs, but for us, it’s been more of that patience game and you don’t get class-A office before rooftops. We were looking at a mall, a college, a high school, and a hospital before there was a rooftop. But I think you’ll see that in the next year.

Scott Sheridan: To your question about the larger Pasco economy, you’ll see some of that along right at the interchange with the Suncoast Expressway. That’s where the commuting traffic is and that’s what it makes a little more viable, and here [at Wiregrass]. Nobody else has in East Pasco what we’ve constructed and even the employers that we’re talking to, even Raymond James and those folks tell us, ‘your infrastructure, your great schools, your great quality housing, dining, all these types of things make me want to bring employees here.’ Now we’ve got all those pieces of the puzzle. Florida Cancer Specialists is building a 60,000-square-foot facility.

Tampa Bay Busness Journal: What’s the next step for Orlando Health? When does it break ground?

Scott Sheridan: They’ll break ground this year. We’re in for some permitting right now with them. And they’ll be in for some permitting for their first phase later this year.

James Porter: Some of the conversations we’ve had in the past, we talked about the thoughtfulness of, man, we just got Orlando Health. The town center is right next to it. Everybody talks town center. It’s usually a Publix and a laundromat anywhere in Pasco. There’s not that sense of place. Most of the time, they fail because there’s no daytime traffic. Or it’s a community where people aren’t going. We’ve created, where, across the street, you’ve got people playing some our $750,000 for A 1,700-square-foot house. They’ve got disposable income. We put an employer with 2,500 or 3,000 jobs next to the town center. Now we’re ready to go. So it’s not just for one deal.

It’s almost a puzzle, getting one big piece and putting it somewhere. And then we start putting in the little pieces around it, so there is that success. It’s being thoughtful of one deal that breeds that success across the project. It takes a while. But at the same time, we don’t worry about failure. We don’t worry about stuff not actually happening.

 

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal

$1B Mixed-Use Frisco Project To Include Medical, Wellness Uses

Frisco City Council voted unanimously May 18 to approve a rezoning request that paves the way for a $1 billion mixed-use development east of the PGA Frisco project.

This rendering shows The Link, a nearly 240-acre mixed-use development planned in Frisco. (Rendering Courtesy: City Of Frisco)

The Link is estimated to generate $7 million a year in property tax revenue and $3 million a year in sales tax revenue once fully built out. The 2 million to 2.5 million square feet of office space would attract between 8,000 and 10,000 jobs, according to project estimates. And an untold number of other jobs would be created at the site for the restaurant, retail, hospitality, wellness, medical and entertainment uses planned there.

 “This project checks a lot of the boxes for Frisco,” said Council Member Will Sowell said. “Who wouldn’t want this development in their city?”

This map shows the location of The Link mixed-use development south of US 380 along Legacy Drive. (Courtes: City Of Frisco)

“The developers took an odd-shaped plot of land with a flood plain in the middle of it and created what is expected to be a world-class project,” said Mayor Jeff Cheney. “We’re sitting here today talking about potentially building a $1 billion development because of the halo effect of the PGA.”

The May 18 vote was the third time that the nearly 240-acre project had come before City Council. In two previous meetings, the project was tabled after some council members expressed concerns with density and the timing of the trail construction.

Frisco Development Services Director John Lettelleir presents plans for The Link to the Frisco City Council on May 18. (Screenshot Courtesy: City Of Frisco)

The approved plan has 150 fewer residential units than the original request. The plan allows for up to 2,206 multifamily units, at least 500 of which must use concrete and steel construction. The revisions also allow for up to 500 single-family and cottage homes.

In addition, the developers agreed to construct the 3.5-mile hike and bike trail during the first phase of construction. The trail must be completed before the first certificate of occupancy is issued.

Project representative Clay Roby called the trail “the heartbeat of the development” that will connect The Link to the resort-style development that will be the new home of the PGA.

“We’ve created … a large pedestrian promenade that goes through the center of the development, ensuring that it’s a very walkable mixed-use property,” said Roby, a managing director at Stillwater Capital.

“A lot of work went into the final plans for The Link,” said Council Member Shona Huffman. “We can’t let down our guard. We still have to push for better. And that’s what we did here tonight. I really do appreciate that the developer worked really hard with us to get better.”

“The council took a long-range view of the community in approving a project that will affect generations to come,” said Cheney. “This is a project we should be celebrating. This should be an exciting day in Frisco’s history.”

 

Source: Community Impact

Healthcare REITs: Back On Life Support

The United States healthcare system has taken center-stage amid the coronavirus outbreak as Healthcare REITs have been on a roller-coaster ride amid evolving forecasts of the severity of the pandemic.

Within the Hoya Capital Healthcare REIT Index, all 18 healthcare REITs are tracked, which account for roughly $110 billion in market value. One of the higher-yielding and more defensive REIT sectors, Healthcare REITs comprise 10-12% of the broad-based “Core” REIT ETFs and are generally well-positioned to capture the demographic-driven tailwinds of the aging population over the next decade.

healthcare REITs

There are five sub-sectors within the healthcare REIT category, each of which have distinct risk/return characteristics. The senior housing sector can be further split into two categories based on lease structure: triple-net leased properties or SHOP (senior housing operating properties). For senior housing, supply growth has been a lingering headwind that has pressured occupancy and rent growth in recent years. Policy-risk is an important factor for skilled nursing and hospital REITs, which derive a significant portion of their revenue from public and private health insurance reimbursements. These “public pay” REITs have been pressured in recent years by policy changes that have attempted to push patients into lower-cost healthcare settings. Medical office and research/lab space, meanwhile, have generally exhibited the most steady and consistent fundamentals within the healthcare REIT space.

healthcare REIT property fundamentals

Healthcare REITs tend to focus on a single property type and are led by the “Big Three” healthcare REITs – Ventas (VTR), Welltower (WELL), and Healthpeak (PEAK). These “Big 3” REITs hold a fairly diversified portfolio across the healthcare spectrum, although these firms have divested most of their public-pay assets in recent years to focus more exclusively on the senior housing sub-sector. Other players in the senior housing space include New Senior (SNR), National Health (NHI) and Diversified Healthcare (DHC). On the public-pay side, the skilled nursing sub-sector includes Omega Healthcare (OHI), Sabra Health Care (SBRA), CareTrust (CTRE), and LTC Properties (LTC) while there is a single hospital-focused REIT, Medical Properties (MPW). The medical office sub-sector includes Healthcare Realty (HR), Healthcare Trust (HTA), Universal Health (UHT), Physicians Realty (DOC), Community Healthcare (CHCT), and Global Medical REIT (GMRE). Alexandria Realty (ARE), meanwhile, is the lone REIT focused exclusively on research and lab space.

healthcare REITs 2020

Still a relatively fragmented industry, Healthcare REITs own approximately one-tenth of the total $2 trillion worth of healthcare-related real estate assets in the United States. Occupancy in senior living facilities is generally “by necessity” and the average age of occupants in these facilities is roughly 84 years old. Healthcare REITs have historically been among the most active acquirers and consolidators, using the competitive advantages of their REIT structure to fuel accretive external growth. Healthcare REITs primarily lease properties to tenants under a long-term triple-net lease structure, though these REITs have taken on increasingly more operating responsibilities over the past decade as these they attempt to mitigate the risks of their third-party operators, many of which have struggled to remain profitable in recent years amid rising costs and lower reimbursement rates. Healthcare REITs have historically been a defensively-oriented sector that pays hearty dividend yield.

healthcare REIT

Healthcare REITs Slammed By Coronavirus Pandemic

Healthcare REITs were slammed during the early-onset of the outbreak but have recovered in recent weeks as death rate estimates have, thankfully, been revised drastically lower from early catastrophic figures. At their lows on March 23, the healthcare REIT sector was off by roughly 45% on the year with several small-cap names down more than 75%, but these REITs have clawed back nearly half of these losses over the last three weeks as coronavirus forecasting models evolved and updated. For the year, the Hoya Capital Healthcare REIT index is lower by 24.9% compared to the 20.9% decline on the broad-based REIT average and the 10.9% decline on the S&P 500.

healthcare REITs

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now estimates that there will be 60,308 COVID-19 deaths, significantly lower than the 240,000 estimate just a month ago. Concerns about the severity of any given flu season is an annual issue for healthcare real estate investors – particularly senior housing and skilled nursing operators – who unfortunately see thousands of resident deaths per year. A typical flu season in the United States will result in between 20,000-60,000 deaths every year according to the CDC, with 95% of deaths above the age of 65. Using current estimates from the CDC and IHME, the 2020 flu season – including the impacts of coronavirus – will likely be 2-3x worse than the typical year and skewed more heavily towards older age cohorts which have been hit disproportionately hard.

flu deaths 2020While likely less devastating on underlying demographics than once feared, no healthcare real estate sector – or any REIT sector for that matter – is immune from the significant near-term and long-term effects of the pandemic. Below is a framework for analyzing the REIT property sectors based on their direct exposure to the anticipated COVID-19 effects as well as their general sensitivity to a potential recession and impact from lower interest rates. Within the COVID-19 sensitivity chart, healthcare REITs are the fifth-most exposed sector to according to our estimates behind hotel, gaming, and retail REITs. Healthcare REITs, however, are usually one of the more stable sectors during “garden variety” economic downturns due to their long-lease terms and generally stable demand profile.

covid sensitivity

The effects of the pandemic will be felt in different intensities within each healthcare real estate sub-sector. Amid the ongoing lockdowns, senior housing REITs have seen occupancy decline due primarily to depressed move-in rates and a sizable uptick in expenses in efforts to prevent and/or control the spread of the virus within the community. Long-term attitudes and behaviors towards senior housing – particularly in independent living communities – may be affected as well. For skilled nursing REITs, the pandemic further exasperates issues with their troubled operators, who have seen expenses rise significantly, a near-term issue that could very well become a long-term risk. For hospitals, the suspension of elective surgeries and a far lower-than-expected surge of coronavirus patients has stretched the already-tight budgets of hospitals and led to tens of thousands of layoffs of doctors and nurses. For the medical office category, while near-term risks are minimal, the huge uptake in usage of telemedicine may alter the long-term need for MOB space.

Naturally, the relatively more immune research/lab space and medical office-focused REITs have outperformed amid the pandemic with Alexandria Realty, Healthcare Realty, and Universal Health Realty leading the way this year. Senior housing-focused REITs, particularly small-cap New Senior and Diversified Healthcare, have been hit especially hard since the start of the outbreak and have yet to enjoy a similar bounce-back as the rest of the sector. So far, two healthcare REITs – Sabra Healthcare and Diversified Healthcare – have announced dividend cuts anda few more expected once earnings season kicks-off next week in what will surely be an eventful and newsworthy few weeks. We’ll have full real-time coverage of earnings season on iREIT on Alpha and as well as in our Real Estate Weekly Outlook.

healthcare real estate

Long-Term Outlook Remains Mostly Intact

For healthcare REITs, the long-awaited demographic-driven demand boom from the aging Baby Boomers – a historically large generation generally defined as those born between 1945 and 1965 – is finally on the horizon. While there was significant fear last month that the contours of this generation could be materially altered by the coronavirus pandemic, current forecasts thankfully suggest a more muted impact. Following the relatively small “Silent Generation,” Baby Boomers are a healthier and wealthier cohort, expected to live longer lives and consume healthcare at a rate that significantly exceeds their prior generational peers. After years of relative stagnation in the critical 80+ population cohort for healthcare real estate, the long-awaited demographic boom is finally in sight as this age segment will nearly double over the next 30 years and grow at an estimated 4% per year through 2040.

Early hints of this long-awaited demand boom were just showing hints of emerging at the end of 2019. According to recently-released NIC data, 2019 was the first year since 2015 to have seen a sequential uptick in average occupancy for senior housing and the first year since 2005 to see an uptick for skilled nursing. While wage pressures continue to pressure margins and rent growth remains uninspiring at inflation-matching levels, same-store NOI performance in 2019 appeared to be an inflection point for the long-sagging healthcare sector. In 4Q19, same-store NOI growth rose to the strongest TTM growth rate in nearly three years at 1.48% following three years of deteriorating performance. Several unknown variables will determine the extent of the coronavirus-related slowdown in 2020, primarily related to the length and severity of the pandemic and if it results in any “permanent” damage to key tenants that would require restructuring.

healthcare REIT same-store NOI growth

Normally, a “garden-variety” recession would be associated with relative outperformance from the healthcare REIT sector. After the prior recession, healthcare REITs went on a buying spree, acquiring tens of billions of dollars worth of healthcare assets from weaker and more troubled operators. This accretive external growth was harder to come by over the last half-decade, but strong share price performance over the last two years had restored the sector’s coveted NAV premium, allowing these REITs to get back to doing what they do best. Healthcare REITs acquired more than $10 billion in net assets in 2019, which was the largest since 2019. The coronavirus pandemic, however, has quickly flipped these sizable NAV premiums to similarly-sized NAV discounts, which will likely reverse the recent momentum.

healthcare REIT transactions

The ‘Aging Boomer’ investment thesis has been no secret to developers as senior housing has been one of the few housing segments seeing ample speculative supply growth in preparation for aging boomers, defying the broader “housing shortage” theme of limited supply in the entry-level and mass-market housing segments. While demand has been predictably steady and showing early signs of Boomer-led acceleration for most sub-sectors outside of skilled nursing, relentless supply growth over the past several years has continued to pressure same-store NOI growth for the senior housing sector. Absent the coronavirus outbreak, it was projected that in 2020 would see roughly supply/demand equilibrium followed by a decade of demand growth outpacing supply growth. That supply/demand equilibrium will likely be pushed back to 2021 given the likely near-term contraction in demand amid the ongoing lockdowns.

senior housing supply growth

The relative oversupply of purpose-built senior housing, however, needs to be viewed in the context of the broader housing market. CBRE estimates that there are roughly 3 million professionally-managed senior housing or skilled nursing units in the US, representing less than 2% of the total US housing stock. By nearly every metric, the U.S. housing markets remain significantly undersupplied at the national-level after a decade of historically low levels of residential fixed investment. As discussed in the focus of our last healthcare REIT report, this has important implications for the retirement prospects of millions of aging Boomers. It is believed that the fears of a “retirement crisis” are overstated due in large part to rising home values over the past decade as Americans – mostly Boomers – who have built up $10 trillion in additional home equity over the last decade which can be tapped over the next decade to pay for healthcare services.

housing shortage

Healthcare REIT Valuations & Dividends

Healthcare REITs currently trade near the lowest valuations seen over the last decade, and continue to trade at discounted valuations relative to other REIT sectors based on consensus Free Cash Flow (aka AFFO, FAD, CAD) metrics. Trading at roughly an 11x AFFO multiple, healthcare REITs trade well below the 15x REIT sector average. Powered by the iREIT Terminal, the sector now trades at a roughly 5-10% discount to Net Asset Value, a reversal from the NAV premium seen at the end of 2019.healthcare REIT valuations

Healthcare REITs have historically been strong dividend payers and continue to rank towards the top of the REIT sector in that regard even after two of the eighteen REITs cut their dividends last month. Healthcare REITs pay an average yield of 6.0%, which is above the REIT sector average of 4.1%. Healthcare REITs, on average, payout roughly 75% of their available cash flow, which leaves some cushion to maintain dividends, though several REITs are at higher risk of dividend cuts due to their already extended payout ratios.

dividend yields healthcare REITs

Dividend yields of the individual names in the healthcare REIT sector range from a low of 1.5% (Diversified Healthcare, which cut its dividend last month to preserve cash) to a high of 17.8% (New Senior Investment). SNR and GMRE as the two most at-risk for a dividend cut based on extended payout ratios, which may be announced during earnings season over the next few weeks. Investors seeking a safe, predictable income stream should focus on the MOB, lab/research, and upper-tier senior housing healthcare REITs such as the Big 3 (Welltower, Ventas, and HCP), Healthcare Trust, Healthcare Realty, Physicians Realty, or Alexandria. Investors who are looking willing to take on significant speculative policy and operational risk can take a look at the primarily public-pay REITs such as Omega, Medical Properties, and Sabra.

healthcare REIT dividend yields

In a recent report, “The REIT Paradox: Cheap REITs Stay Cheap“, the study that showed that lower-yielding REITs in faster-growing property sectors with lower leverage profiles have historically produced better total returns, on average, than their higher-yielding and higher-leveraged counterparts. We’ve now tracked 22 equity REITs in our universe of 165 names to announce a cut or suspension of their dividends in addition to the roughly half of mortgage REITs (20 out of 41) that have announced dividend cuts thus far. So far, all of the dividend cuts or suspensions have come from sectors that are deemed as High or Medium/High COVID-19 risk.

REIT dividend cuts 2020

Key Takeaways: Back on Life Support, But Not Terminal

The United States healthcare system has taken center-stage amid the coronavirus outbreak. Healthcare REITs have been on a roller-coaster ride amid evolving forecasts of the severity of the pandemic. Healthcare REITs were slammed during the early-onset of the outbreak but have recovered in recent weeks as death rate estimates have, thankfully, been revised drastically lower from early catastrophic figures.

While likely less devastating on underlying demographics than once feared, no healthcare real estate sector is immune from the significant near-term and long-term effects of the pandemic. For senior housing, skilled nursing, and hospital REITs already dealing with soft underlying fundamentals, the pandemic will put a sizable dent in near-term demand and drive significantly higher expense growth. The positive long-term outlook for senior housing remains intact as the long-awaited demographic-driven demand boom is finally arriving. Behaviors and attitudes towards senior housing and telemedicine, however, shouldn’t be overlooked.

Investors seeking to play the sector through an ETF can take a look at the Long Term Care ETF (OLD), which allocates roughly 50% of its holdings towards senior housing and skilled nursing REITs or the iShares Residential REIT ETF (REZ), which allocates roughly 30% towards healthcare REITs, including medical office and hospitals. Senior housing REITs also compose roughly 4-5% of the Hoya Capital Housing Index, which tracks the performance of the U.S. housing industry. It is believed that the combination of historically low housing supply and strong demographic-driven demand provides a very compelling macroeconomic backdrop for the US housing industry – including senior housing – over the next decade.

housing etfI

Source: Seeking Alpha