Medical Real Estate Still The Best Way To Keep Your Portfolio Healthy

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In 2018, the JSE’s SA listed property index dropped 25%. In 2019, the total return from the index was 1.92%, well below inflation. In the first five months of 2020, the index shed 39%.

Although dividends from listed property grew by 8-12% a year between 2014 and 2017, growth slowed to 3.5% in 2019, which again was below inflation. In response to the economic fall-out from Covid-19, many property companies have warned they will withhold dividends this year to strengthen their balance sheets and until they understand the full fallout from the pandemic.

The data is not looking encouraging.  Office tenants are cutting space wherever possible, having learned that their reduced workforce can work from home. Retail is under enormous pressure across the board, from the legendary brands like Edgars to the smaller independent brands, and restaurants that just don’t have the fire power to recapitalise and pay rents in a market where there are still restrictions and the consumer is unable to come to the rescue.

What’s more, if you are in the hotel and hospitality industry, then there is really no clear path to recovery at this stage and the losses will be devastating.

There’s no refuge in residential property, either. The Lightstone Residential Property Index shows national house price growth in SA peaked at 6.25% in 2014 and has slowed since then to a five-year low of 1.7% in 2019. Lightstone expects, despite the recent interest rate cuts, that growth in the residential housing market will slow again in 2020.

Two specialized sectors of the property market have continued to deliver solid returns throughout the Covid-19 crisis. Logistics is one of the winners due to online e-commerce stores which have enjoyed a surge in online shopping.

The other big winner globally is medical office buildings, whose tenants mostly offer essential services. Even those who had been required to close are already benefiting from a post-lockdown surge in patient visits as medical procedures can, in most cases, not be postponed indefinitely. Think for a moment about your dentist, who will still need to attend to those fillings even if he could not see you over the last three months.

For South Africans who invested in offshore logistics or medical buildings, the rand returns have been considerably enhanced by the latest depreciation of the rand against the dollar.

In the US, the Covid-19 crisis has hit particularly hard, with 134,000 deaths by early July, amid total confirmed cases exceeding three million. Hospitals under pressure to clear wards and scale up for the anticipated flood of Covid-19 patients have had to postpone all elective procedures and turn patients away who were not critical.

This dramatically affected the income of all medical professionals who are not directly involved in treating Covid-19 patients, and has also affected hospitals’ revenue. Even as the US emerges from lockdown, patients choose to avoid traditional hospitals in fear of being exposed to the virus. This has been a boost for medical practitioners working outside the hospital systems, as patients have sought treatment from doctors working from these independent facilities.

Orbvest, which has 19 medical office buildings under management in three US states (Texas, Georgia and New Jersey), noted rental collections declined slightly in April, during lockdown, as about 21 tenants across the entire portfolio of over 100,000 square meters requested deferment.

But by end-June, the net collection of rentals was back to 97.6%, as both Texas and Georgia re-opened their economies, and collections for the month of July already are close to normal. The nett result of the pandemic on our projected revenue will be negligible and we expect to have fully recovered before year end.

Medical property investment was not an unexpected beneficiary of the Covid-19 crisis. The argument for buying into a building tenanted by medical professionals, especially in the US, makes fundamental sense in the long term. In the US, the aging population is growing and requiring more medical care. An investment delivering a proven 8% p.a. in US dollar dividends paid quarterly, plus a capital gain share at the end of the investment period, is an essential part of a diversified portfolio for South African investors.

 

Source: Daily Maverick

As They Scour Acquisition Opportunities, Which Assets Are High-Net-Worth Investors Favoring?

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As high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) and family offices survey the commercial real estate landscape, they’re seeing some peaks and some craters.

They assuredly lacked a roadmap for navigating a landscape marred by the coronavirus pandemic, though. However, HNWI and family offices are finding their way through this uncharted territory. And their compasses are pointing them toward commercial real estate investments that they believe are positioned for long-term growth.

In this climate, investors and advisers say, HNWI and family offices are steering toward acquisitions of medical assets, warehouses and multifamily properties.

“With real estate, my clients are willing to settle for lower short-term returns for stability. And the quality cash flow from real estate opportunities is attractive as a long-term investment for them,” says Mark Germain, managing director of Mercer Advisors Inc., a wealth management firm in Denver.

“In pursuit of stability and cash flow amid the current economic environment, HNWI and family offices are looking at recession-resistant asset classes,” says Charles “Chick” Atkins, principal of Atkins Cos., a real estate developer, investor and manager based in West Orange, N.J.

Atkins points to the medical office sector as a standout in this regard, thanks in part due to pandemic-spurred demand for health care services. This trend includes stand-alone offices, retail spaces, medical clinics and urgent care facilities, according to Atkins and others.

“Health care is essential, and people will still need to see doctors and other health care professionals no matter the economic conditions,” Atkins says. “While the use of telemedicine is on the rise, the aging population of baby boomers, coupled with the short supply of well-located, class-A medical offices, should help ensure a continued need for health care properties.”

Germain cites the warehouse sector as another one that’s attracting attention from HNWI and family offices. This includes supply chain warehouses (think Amazon) and refrigerated warehouses. In surveys by NAIOP, a commercial real estate group, 62.6 percent of commercial real estate and banking professionals reported acquisitions of industrial buildings in May, up from 57.3 percent in April.

During a May 28 call, Spencer Levy, chairman of Americas research at commercial real estate services company CBRE said “Although rental and vacancy rates for industrial properties will soften over the next year, the pandemic-fueled jump in e-commerce, the reshoring of manufacturing and the climb in business inventories bode well for long-term industrial demand.”

CBRE says a 5.0 percent increase in business inventories calls for an additional 400 million to 500 million sq. ft. of warehouse space.

“Industrial is not only going to perform better than any other asset class with the exception of multifamily, [but] we are actually more optimistic about industrial today than we were three months ago pre-COVID,” Levy said during the call.

Another sector drawing interest from HNWI and family offices is multifamily. NAIOP’s surveys indicate an uptick in multifamily acquisitions from April to May. CBRE data shows multifamily acquisitions totaled $38 billion in the first quarter, a year-over-year decline of just 1 percent.

In a June 1 report, CBRE said pandemic lockdowns and economic uncertainty lowered the multifamily turnover rate—the share of rented units not released each year—from 47.5 percent in 2019 to 42.1 percent in April. That’s the lowest turnover rate in over 20 years, according to the firm. This low turnover “is helping owners maintain occupancy and cash flows,” the report states.

An example of continuing faith in the multifamily sector: Greensboro, N.C.-based Bell Partners Inc., an apartment investor and manager, announced on June 3 that it had closed an apartment investment fund totaling $950 million. The fundraising goal was $800 million. The fund’s investors include accredited HNWIs.

The value-add Bell Apartment Fund VII empowers the company to spend more than $2.5 billion on apartments in its 14 target markets. The fund has already purchased three properties. Bell Partners has about 60,000 units under management.

“The fact that we were able to close Bell Apartment Fund VII above our target, despite the volatility caused by COVID-19, is a strong vote of confidence from our investors,” Jon Bell, CEO of Bell Partners, said in a news release.

Aside from industrial and multifamily properties, Cassidy senses an interest among HNWI and family offices in downtown office buildings in emerging markets.

“Whether they are core or value-add plays for investors, these spaces will be key components of these cities’ economic engines moving forward,” Cassidy says.

NAIOP’s surveys signal a dip in office acquisitions from April to May, primarily due to uncertainty over how the explosion in remote work will affect office demand.

Even though more employers are likely to switch fully or partly to remote work, MetLife Investment Management predicts the amount of occupied offices in the U.S. will reach 8.1 billion sq. ft. by 2030. That would represent an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent from the 7.1 billion sq. ft. that’s occupied today. The historic average growth rate is 1.5 percent, MetLife noted in a May 14 report.

MetLife expects remote working trends arising from the pandemic will have “a relatively limited impact” on long-term demand for office space.

“Any stigma or fear that COVID-19 creates related to the office sector, especially as a growing number of firms announce real estate cost savings plans, could create investment opportunities,” MetLife says.

“HNWI and family offices also are watching hard-hit sectors like retail for potential bargains,” said Michael Finan, managing director of Chicago-based BMO Family Office LLC. “We are in a stressed period for real estate, but not distressed. There are many buyers on the sidelines with capital available, and new distressed property funds are being formed each day in anticipation of fire sale deals in the not-too-distant future. While distressed retail properties will certainly satisfy some investors’ appetite for deals, HNWI and family offices are also eyeing single-tenant net lease properties as sources of stable income. We recognize that brick-and-mortar retail is challenged, but not all consumers are satisfied with Amazon or Walmart.com.”

 

Source: NREI

The COVID-19 Shutdown Tests Medical Office Buildings As An Investment

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As U.S. health-care systems limit medical services to emergency and urgent care situations in the face of COVID-19, medical office buildings are standing empty, and the threat of tenants missing lease payments mounts.

Still, experts say, investors have every reason to keep MOBs high on their list of sector favorites. In addition to pent-up demand, strong sector fundamentals—aging Baby Boomers, expanded medical insurance coverage, new treatment options and shifts in service delivery—are expected to aid the MOB sector’s rebound and its love affair with investors.

“Medical office buildings and other outpatient care settings have been hot commodities in commercial real estate investment for the past several years,” according to Cushman & Wakefield’s 2020 Health Care Investor Outlook released at the end of last year. “Legacy investors are doubling down on the sector, while new investors are competing for the limited product supply.”

In the meantime, medical office building owners will have to wait for tenants and their patients to return.

“Most owners are trying to not make an impulsive decision, to wait and see how this situation plays out,” said Allen Bolden, a partner with HB Medical Real Estate.

But despite the MOB market’s underlying strength, too much time may prove to be an enemy.

“The fact that we don’t know if this will last another week or several months is why we can’t give solid answers to the future,” Bolden added. “The only thing we do know is the longer the economy is shut down, the more this will test the strength of MOBs as an investment.”

 

Source: CPE