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Four Healthcare Design And Construction Trends To Watch

The healthcare sector faces more challenges related to design and construction than any time in recent memory.

COVID-19 brought sweeping challenges to most healthcare systems and providers. However, in many ways, COVID-19 highlighted structural flaws that existed well before the pandemic Staff burnout and labor shortages, a fragile supply chain, and increasingly difficult payor models were all in play in 2019, but the pandemic negatively impacted each of these systems. We now find the industry in a precarious position.

In 2022, overall operating margins for many U.S. hospitals were negative, according to management consulting firm Kaufman Hall, which characterized last year as “one of the worst financial years for hospitals.” The near future is likely to bring further challenges, not the least of which is the end of the 20 percent Medicare premium for COVID-19 admissions in May 2023.

Add to the mix: 54 percent of the nursing and physician workforce is experiencing burnout, per a May 2022 report “Addressing Health Worker Burnout” from the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Additionally, 45 to 60 percent of medical students and residents report the same.

This reality poses another financial challenge for organizations that will be forced to invest more in salaries, benefits, and anti-burnout strategies to attract and retain top talent. Simultaneously, the competitive landscape is changing rapidly. Healthcare systems have long relied on a delicate balance of inpatient diagnostic and procedure care plus hospital outpatient department (HOPD) revenues to make up for acute care operating losses.

Now these systems find themselves competing against a widening field of players. These new entrants to direct patient care include Amazon, CVS, Optum, and even insurance companies that are acquiring direct-care entities aiming to deliver services conveniently and at lower cost. They’re also recruiting clinical providers with attractive compensation and work-life balance packages that 24/7 hospitals can seldom match.

These numerous pressures add new, significant challenges to one of the most important levers in the business of healthcare: capital expenditures spending (also, known as capex). Fortunately, this unprecedented environment also presents enticing opportunities within capital planning, design, and construction.

Four healthcare design and construction trends are providing opportunities for healthcare leaders to pivot their strategies to optimize capex spending. These changes can allow systems to increase patient engagement, restore patient revenue, and grow the top and bottom lines to improve return on investment.

1. Hospital Project “Sputter”

While architecture/engineering/construction (A/E/C) firms are far from sounding the alarm, billings and project starts are showing signs of softening. A December 2022 AIA report, “Architecture firm billings end the year on a soft note,” shows roughly nearly 40 percent of firms saw an increase in project stalls, while 28 percent indicated project holds to be a “somewhat serious” issue.

False starts and holds on healthcare projects are a direct result of the myriad conditions organizations face. They also reflect the imperative upon most systems to reduce cost of care in a meaningful way. While there will always be a need for plant maintenance projects, ground-up and greenfield expenditures must either expand market share, reduce cost of care, or, increasingly, achieve both.

While financial stability has always been a major determinant of new capital expenditures, healthcare systems must now contend with broader questions:

• Is the project diverting patients to a less costly site of care?

• Would a digital solution solve our problem instead of new real estate?

•  Can we partner with another player (retail, digital, payor) to affect the same outcome in a different way? The AHA has creatively referred to these partnerships as “coopetition,” in which providers increasingly leverage large industry players to lower cost of care.

As the field of healthcare players widens, systems are faced with more complex options. The all-too-common result is capex projects that sputter in and out of existence. This is not likely to wane soon—the fundamental challenges facing healthcare have been years in the making and will take years to resolve.

Healthcare leaders should look to their A/E/C consultant partners to engage in nimble planning that breaks the mold of traditional linear processes and is more responsive to the fluid nature of today’s environment.

This requires partners to consider how they can pivot their offerings to meet market and client needs. Decision-makers should ensure partners can successfully address questions such as:

•  How might the traditional multi-month master planning and pricing exercise be consolidated into a 5-day or 30-day sprint that answers the same fundamental questions but avoids a drawn-out analysis of an uncertain concept?

•  Can a construction firm leverage its awareness of the supply chain, lead times, site analysis, escalation, and trades availability to co-author a more robust and actionable feasibility analysis?

•  Could individual providers across the A/E/C landscape come together with advisory solutions that are predictable, quick, and attractive to C-suite healthcare executives who are desperate for support but hesitant to invest in conceptual ideas?

2. Tech-Centric Healthcare

Digital investment still hinges on uncertain industry regulations and consumer uptake. But one thing is sure: the pandemic reinforced the concept that healthcare organizations need to adapt their physical infrastructures to support the demands of technology-enabled omnichannel patient experience (PX) systems, clinical care, and digital tools to provide education and enhanced healthcare choices.

As buildings become smarter, the way healthcare leaders and service providers integrate teams, processes, and systems during planning, design, and construction also needs to evolve. Organizations need their A/E/C partners to work closely with all stakeholders to gain a holistic view of this approach and all relevant financial aspects.

These stakeholders include the chief information officer (CIO), PX leaders, designers, trade partners, technology vendors, and end-users. It’s important they are engaged early in the project lifecycle to make projects more cost-effective and ensure all components work as expected at turnover/activation.

For example, DPR Construction recently completed a project at Inova Loudoun Hospital in Virginia to coordinate the organization’s clinical and PX systems during construction. This included integrating more than 30 systems (e.g., lighting to help regulate the rhythm of day and night, patient and guest entertainment technology), plus low-voltage systems designed to allow future tech adaptations.

All the systems were thoroughly planned, allowing for seamless start-up and operations. A holistic approach like this accounts for a critical issue: the total cost of the project. It’s vital to design and build to incorporate all critical technology and systems into projects early in the process. This can reduce total cost by mitigating the expense of adding tech when a project is nearly finished or complete.

3. Flexibility In Where Healthcare Is Delivered

The pandemic’s long-term impact on site-of-service shifts is unclear (some care was diverted from hospitals, but a great deal of care was simply delayed). But it did provide an experiment in the uptake and viability of virtual health. What began as a temporary solution has become a surge of virtual health solutions (connected services, devices, and support) that show promise for temporal and chronic disease management.

Managing disease through a series of episodic hospital visits is not financially viable for patients, providers, or payers. And as reimbursement continues to ratchet down, providers now face an imperative to reduce cost of care or risk financial insolvency.

A high priority for many providers is keeping patients out of physical sites of care altogether. However, an equally high priority is shifting to sites where care can be delivered at a lower cost than either a hospital or hospital outpatient department (HOPD).

A recent McKinsey article shows that ambulatory care now makes up roughly 30 percent of total provider revenues. Future growth sources include urgent care, ambulatory surgery centers, and outpatient behavioral health facilities.

Healthcare leaders should identify A/E/C partners who can leverage viable ambulatory strategies by bringing new ways of thinking and delivering these capital projects. Considerations include:

•  During concept and program development, partners must address the impact of virtual healthcare. Whereas telehealth might have had near-zero impact on volumes five years ago, virtual health options that reduce the demand for real estate continue to expand and diversify.

•  The typical 50-year lifespan of health facilities is no longer an assumption for ambulatory settings. Partners should be prepared to develop solutions with short payback periods and focused objectives that may radically change in five years.

•  As providers look to capture market share based on convenience and access, retrofits into non-health facilities will proliferate. Healthcare leaders need A/E/C partners to help them envision creative adaptations into challenging core-and-shell scenarios.

4. Predictive And Prefabricated Building Solutions

One traditional upside of prefabrication has been speed to market above all else. While prefabrication solutions sometimes have a higher price tag, common logic has held that cutting schedule is more valuable than a premium first cost for assemblies due to the ability to see patients sooner and generate additional revenue.

As healthcare leaders seek to lower costs while accelerating speed to market, they are turning over every stone—seeking real estate solutions that support Lean operational models of care, reinforce enterprise branding, and offer lower and predictable lifecycle costs.

Leaders in the A/E/C industry are enabling this strategy by providing advance prefabrication elements that are advantageous for a wider selection of building typologies and are more likely to benefit from economies of scale.

Another trend gaining traction moves beyond component-based prefabrication and into a realm of predictive real estate solutions. Ranging from micro to macro, these concepts cover prefab elements that can support larger and more varied care distribution systems.

This includes the use of prefab elements that can be deployed in repeatable clinical and support spaces. Individual room templates can also be prefabricated to provide consistent care environments across multiple sites. This approach can optimize capex investments and speed-to-market for many healthcare systems, while providing a better patient experience.

Moreover, predictive solutions also involve the use of prototypes designed to meet both current and future needs. At the departmental level, prototypes should be developed for repeatable use, but also remain flexible enough to be hosted within multiple core-and-shell scenarios.

On a larger scale, entire building prototypes can be designed to offer an agile chassis to host a variety of care models in order to successfully align with the long-term goals of the organization.

In all cases, delivery partners should be prepared to co-define the “true north” for predictive solutions alongside providers. In other words, before exploring what should be standardized or prefabricated, teams must define the problems to solve.

Because predictive solutions are not a one-size-fits-all question, healthcare leaders need partners that assess the feasibility and viability of solutions within their unique organizational context. Finally, adoption of prefab solutions requires early understanding of cost, clinical, and maintenance ramifications. Healthcare providers should lean on partners who can address all these dimensions so they can make informed decisions.

Future Healthcare Capital Development

When considering the state of today’s healthcare environment, a certain axiom comes to mind: “May you live in interesting times.” For most healthcare leaders, this is an understatement, as financial pressures will be a primary factor for the foreseeable future.

That doesn’t mean the future has to be bleak. When it comes to capital development, savvy decision-makers are forging stronger bonds with their A/E/C partners to devise innovative solutions to meet these challenges head on.

At the end of the day, healthcare organizations that embrace this opportunity to evolve will be the ones that succeed over the long term.

 

Source: healthcare design

U.S. Demographic Trends Strongly Favor Medical Office Real Estate

The dislocation caused by COVID impacted all areas of life and transformed work and leisure for tens of millions of Americans.

The health crisis also prompted an unprecedented population shift over the past two years, which along with an accommodative Federal Reserve, stimulus payments, and a buoyant stock market contributed to a dramatic rise of residential real estate prices in the United States.

The availability of remote work, a tight labor market which shifted power to employees to demand more flexible work arrangements, escape from strict pandemic-related public health measures, a general interest of people to move to a warmer climate, more tax-friendly locations, with better job and salary prospects, a buoyant stock market that lifted household wealth and, of course, rising home prices, and a frantic search for a shrinking inventory of affordable homes all contributed to an unprecedented population shift over the past couple of years.

These trends also favor another area of real estate favored by sophisticated individual investors and institutions, healthcare real estate.

“Before the pandemic, the healthcare sector was characterized by long-term leases, stable occupancy, consistent income streams and quality tenants with stable, long-term leases and high credit ratings,” says Martin Freeman, OrbVest CEO, “as the pandemic recedes we see even more reason for long-term optimism for individuals and institutional investors considering opportunities in this sector.”

OrbVest is a global real estate company investing in income-producing medical commercial real estate in the United States, and is one of a growing number of companies looking to capitalize on the growth and potential of US healthcare real estate.

What Are The Trends?

The National Association of Realtors recently highlighted metropolitan areas in the Sunbelt and Mountain states that saw the highest yearly price gains: Punta Gorda, Fla. (28.7%); Ocala, Fla. (28.2%); Austin-Round Rock, Texas (25.8%); Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. (25.7%); Sherman-Denison, Texas (25.1%); Tucson, Ariz. (24.9%); Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. (24.7%); Ogden-Clearfield, Utah (24.7%); Salt Lake City, Utah (24.4%); and Boise City-Nampa, Idaho (24.3%).

Chicago, Milwaukee, New York City, and San Francisco all saw a population decline during the pandemic because of fewer jobs and unfavorable demographic trends.  In 2021, New York, California, and Illinois each lost over 100,000 people to outmigration.

According to Redfin, a record 32% of users nationwide were looking to move to a different metro area during the first quarter of 2022.

The 2021 U.S. Moving Migration Patterns Report from North American Moving Services also showed that Illinois, New York, California, New Jersey, and Michigan were the top five states for outbound moves, while Idaho, Arizona, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, and Utah were the top states for inbound moves.

Redfin noted the top 10 places where Americans are considering moving include: Miami; Phoenix, Las Vegas; Sacramento; Tampa; Dallas; Cape Coral, Fla.; North Port, Fla.; San Antonio; Atlanta.

The Marcus & Millichap multifamily market forecast primarily reflects these statistics and trends. The company specifically cited that the Sunbelt and Mountain regions should thrive. Even before the pandemic, the Sunbelt saw significant in-migration, household formation, and employment growth. During the pandemic, this region saw fewer job losses, mainly due to public policy regarding restrictions. The Mountain region is also seeing momentum thanks to rapidly growing populations, a strong quality of life, and affordable living costs.

Let’s take a deeper look at what could be driving these migration trends.

COVID-19

A Pew Research Center study conducted in June 2020 found that over a quarter (28%) cited COVID-19 as a significant driver for why they moved. Many people relocated due to fear of catching the virus while others moved to escape restrictions.

A worldwide pandemic would not have necessarily been a migration driver pre-2020. However, the pandemic indeed exposed a divide between how to handle the pandemic. Blue states such as California, New York, and Illinois had some of the harshest coronavirus restrictions. Michigan also saw significant out-migration due to the collapse of the auto industry and COVID-related public policy. Red states, on the other hand, such as Texas and Florida, kept their conditions largely open. This undoubtedly led to a short-term migration driver for people seeking to earn a living and escape restrictions.

Take New York City, for example.  In March 2020, there was a 256% increase in people moving out of the city compared to the same month in 2019. Between March and August 2020, 246,000 people filed a change of address request- an almost 100% increase compared to the same period in 2019.

Remote Work And Learning

Somewhat related to COVID and its shutdown restrictions, the rise of remote work and learning has been another driver for migration. Many students could also be taking advantage of online learning to save money on housing and living expenses.

Climate

The 2020 U.S. Moving Migration Patterns Report noted that the Northwest and Midwest were the regions in the U.S. experiencing the most outbound migrations. Harsh winters are certainly a contributing factor. Meanwhile, the same report cited climate and open space availability as reasons for southern states experiencing great inbound migrations.

According to Moving.com, the weather is the number one reason people move to Florida, for example. Despite hot and humid summers, the state has about 200 sunshine-filled days a year and seasons that tend to be mostly mild and warm. Average winter temperatures also appear to range between the 60s and 70s.

Not every state can boast the same climate that Florida has. However, other places in the Sunbelt and South have mild temperatures of their own that might be contributing to the amount of inbound migration.

Job Growth/Availability

In the Pew Research survey we previously mentioned, a total of 18% gave financial reasons, including job loss, as their motivation to relocate. This driver is also correlated with COVID-19 and policy restrictions. While states hit hardest by restrictions and job losses saw the most out-migration, those who stayed relatively open and kept their job market afloat saw the most in-migration.

Multiple sources and indications show that the Sunbelt, the South, and the Mountain regions are the best locations for job opportunities and job growth.

According to U.S. News, the Top 5 states for job growth are as follows: That’s 2 Sunbelt states, 2 Mountain states, and 1 Southern state.

Other data corroborates this too. According to the Seidman Institute, Idaho was the ONLY state in the U.S. to experience year-over-year job growth for total nonfarm payrolls in January 2021 and is leading year-to-date too.

4 of the Top 5 states leading in job growth based on a 12-month moving average are also all Mountain states: Idaho, Utah, Arkansas, Montana, and South Dakota.

This interactive map from the WorldPopulationReview depicting “Job Growth by State 2021” seems to expand on this data. Notice which regions of the country are lighter shaded (less job growth) and which areas are darker shaded (more job growth).

Income Tax/Affordability

“An income tax increase in a state may cause individuals to out-migrate over time,” says the Cato Institute.

Because of the economic hardships that many Americans have faced, the correlation between state income tax rates, affordability, and migration is not coincidental.

3 of the Top 8 states for in-migration- Florida, Tennessee, and Texas- do not collect state income tax. Meanwhile, other top states for in-migration, Arizona, North Carolina, and South Carolina, have a minimal state income tax.

While growing Mountain States, such as Idaho, do have state-income tax, Mountain States are generally more affordable and have a slower life pace. Compare that to states such as California, New Jersey, and New York. All three of those states are in the Top 5 for most out-migration, and unsurprisingly, their state income tax rates are 13.3%, 10.75%, and 8.82%, respectively.

Impact On The Healthcare Industry

The Sunbelt, South, and Mountain regions have experienced the most in-migration. It is not a coincidence that these regions are also seeing the highest volume of medical office sales.

Medical office sales volume totaled $19.6 billion in 2021 a 40.1% increase from 2020, a significant increase from prior years’ sales ranges of $13 to $14 billion.

The five states with the most MOB square footage under construction are California, Florida, and Texas, New York and Ohio.  The same five states also top the list of hospital construction activity.

Houston, Texas is the leading metro market for construction, and other Sun Belt areas like Orlando, Miami, and Atlanta are all in the top 10.

There is a direct correlation between healthcare real estate, demographics, and migration. Sunbelt states have seen investor interest in medical office buildings due to pleasant year-round climates attracting aging boomers and young families seeking to enjoy better weather and a more active lifestyle.

You have to consider the cost of living and the cost of healthcare as well. For the younger population, it is much more affordable to raise a family in the Sunbelt and the South compared to New York City and San Francisco, especially when you consider the cost of healthcare.

For our aging population, consider the essential needs for affordable and convenient healthcare as the 80+ demographic is growing quickly, and outspending every other age on healthcare combined.

The 65-and-older population has increased from 12.8 percent of the population to 16.1 percent. By 2030, it may comprise more than 1/5 of the U.S. population. This has a direct and critical impact on healthcare. According to data from the 2010 Census, more than two-thirds of people in this age group (66.5 percent) see the doctor three or more times a year, up from less than half of those aged 46-64 (44.2 percent).

For one example of how demographics provide a tail wind for  segmented and specialized healthcare facilities, look to South Florida, home to the highest concentration of seniors in the country, with more than 3.3 million Floridians aged 65 and older, and 1 in 20 now 80 years old or older.

Migration and Demographics Fueling Medical Office Building Boom

We are witnessing a boom in the medical office building (MOB) real estate market.  MedCraft Investment Partners announced the launch of a $500 million joint venture for medical office acquisitions, and, Kayne Anderson Real Estate is getting ready to close a $2.5 billion fund of which approximately half will be allocated to medical offices.

In 2021, 280,000 square feet of medical office space was absorbed – a 77% increase from 2020, according to JLL.  medical office vacancy down two basis points to 5.8%, the lowest levels since 2006 and medical office rents rose 5.5% in 2021, according to JLL.

Average net asking rents for MOB space increased by 1.7% in 2021 to $22.61 per square foot — setting a new high for the sector, according to Colliers.

Companies with a track record for success like OrbVest, are able to navigate this competitive marketplace and are attracting a great deal of interest from individual and business investors around the world seeking dollar dividends and an inflation-resistant asset in times of volatility.

“We are mindful of the increasingly competitive market for prime assets and are constantly re-assessing and adjusting OrbVest’s business model to match evolving market conditions,” says Freeman. “We are fortunate that OrbVest is able to leverage the relationships it has built up with brokers and providers of these assets so we can continue to secure almost 75% of our deals off-market, providing a sustainable pipeline to meet investor expectations.”

Key Takeaways

For healthcare real estate, demographic shifts and population migration trends go hand in hand with location and its correlation to healthcare real estate trends.

America is rapidly changing and graying.  Our population is not only aging but also taking into account quality of lifestyle more than ever before.  Young families want a more affordable, lower-stress and higher-quality lifestyle. Seniors want to enjoy a better climate with affordable and convenient healthcare integrating with their lifestyles. These migration trends preceded the pandemic, but the pandemic accelerated these trends.

If you’re considering investing in healthcare real estate, consider how demographic changes, migration, and how people’s location preferences directly correlate with healthcare properties.

Suppose you can look into crystal ball not 5 years into the future but 10+. In that case, you can unlock a historically strong investment opportunity in medical office buildings and healthcare real estate.

“We believe that healthcare-related commercial real estate in the U.S. should continue its growth as an ageing population and technological progress drives increasing demand for these specialized buildings. We are very excited to be executing successfully in this rapidly growing space,” says Freeman.

 

Source: Global Banking & Finance Review