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Medical Office Buildings Still Rule The Outpatient Space In Healthcare Real Estate

Of the five main outpatient facility types, medical office buildings (MOBs), urgent care centers and ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) have the most positive outlooks and futures in the healthcare and healthcare real estate (HRE) sector.

On the other hand, the outlook is not quite as positive for micro-hospitals, which have a “moderate” outlook, and freestanding emergency departments (FEDs), which have a “negative” outlook. That’s according to a scorecard, if you will, compiled by well-known healthcare research and consulting firm The Advisory Board Co., which is based in Washington, D.C., and is part of Eden Prairie, Minn.-based Optum.

Providing insights into The Advisory Board’s rankings and outlooks for the various outpatient property types was the company’s Fred Bayon, managing director. He did so during a 100-minute presentation that covered a wide range of topics affecting the healthcare sector during The Colliers National Healthcare Conference, held Sept. 12-13 at the Hyatt Centric Chicago Magnificent Mile.

“My job with The Advisory Board is to travel around the country and meet with our members … hospitals and health systems, C-suite executives and the health system boards of directors and let them know what’s happening in the healthcare market place, what they need to be strategizing about and be aware of concerning healthcare policies and healthcare changes and issues,” Mr. Bayon told the audience.

Near the end of his presentation, which included plenty of insight into current healthcare policy and disruptors to the status quo, Mr. Bayon gave the firm’s outlook on the various property types.

As has been the case for several years, The Advisory Board is most optimistic about the short- and long-term prospects for MOBs. The rise of MOB development and investment has occurred in large part because they allow hospitals and health systems the best and most economical way to enter new markets, to protect market share, to provide convenient access to patients and to help facilitate the coordination of care.

“The MOB market continues to be a positive, intriguing play for hospitals, health systems and investors,” Mr. Bayon told the audience. “Those players are and will remain interested in MOBs for years to come because they “are conveniently located, essentially for Medicare patients and commercially insured patients. Health systems do not want their patients to have to come downtown, they don’t want you to come into the maze that is the big hospital campus. Instead, they want you to go somewhere where there is parking and where there is a pleasant atmosphere, because that’s where they think they can drive volumes.”

The Advisory Board gives its next highest ranking to ASCs — which, even though they carry some risk because of the lower-profit margins they deliver — will continue to experience increased volumes in years to come, he said.

Mr. Bayon noted that volumes in ASCs are expected to increase by nearly 28 percent by the year 2027, driven in large part by ongoing policy changes by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) that will “reimburse Medicare procedures done in ASCs. For example, total knee (replacement) and some cardiac procedures” have recently been added to the list of procedures that, when done in ASCs, will be reimbursed by Medicare.

Also receiving a positive score, or outlook, from The Advisory Board are urgent care centers, which the firm is “pretty bullish on,” Mr. Bayon said.

“More and more health systems are looking at urgent care centers and having some sort of investment in them, or some sort of partnership in sites across the United States,” Mr. Baynon said. “We still see these growing rather rapidly and for us, this is becoming a primary care alternative that can alleviate some of the capacity crunch for primary care in some markets.”

Even though The Advisory Board is not as bullish on FEDs and micro-hospitals, Mr. Bayon noted that the firm is “neutral” on the facility type, as those that are placed in the right locations can provide benefits for health systems, especially when they are expanding into new markets.

“Micro hospitals, the eight- to 12-bed hospitals can help a system bring together some inpatient and outpatient services, with core services being acute care, emergency care, pharmacy and additional services,” Mr. Bayon said. “(Micro-hospitals) continue to be a big, big play in the Texas marketplace, but we can see this growing in other markets as well. What’s interesting about micro-hospitals for developers and healthcare providers is that these facilities are not subject to site-neutral payments, meaning they can bill at inpatient rates and then they can generate their own on-campus or off-campus definition, meaning they can put outpatient services within 250 yards of those micro-hospitals and not be subject to a site neutral rate. For us, I would say that right now we are pretty neutral on micro-hospitals.”

The Advisory Board gives its lowest ranking, or outlook, to FEDs, which, in some instances,

“One of the things to keep in mind is that government payers do not reimburse freestanding emergency departments, but they are dotted across the United States and there are some hospital systems that believe such facilities are something around which they can build more services over the longer term,” Mr. Banyon said.

The Advisory Board, however, has a negative outlook on the facility type in large part because “they could drive unnecessary utilization if we see a preponderance of them.

“And I think that CMS could look at decreased reimbursement to FEDs moving forward,” Mr. Banyon continued, “and this is not to distinguish between an ED in a hospital setting and a freestanding setting. That’s a big risk for health systems.”

 

Source: HREI

Healthcare Trust Of America: The Best Way To Play Healthcare Trends

While there is no question the demand outlook looks robust, the supply side of the equation remains a rough one for many property types.

Does that make many healthcare REITs uninvestable? No, but it could never justify pulling the trigger at current valuations.

When it comes to medical office buildings, however, there is a defensible moat here on an operational level and just as many, if not more, of the trends in healthcare benefit the industry. As the largest and most pure play on these assets, Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) trades at a clear discount to its intrinsic value. While not a home run type of purchase today, hitting singles and doubles never hurt anyone.

Overview of Healthcare, Medical Office Building Outlook

Everyone knows the bull thesis for healthcare. The Office of the Actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (“CMS”) recently projected that national health spending will rise 5.5% annually from 2018 to 2027. That means that, once again, healthcare spend will outstrip likely GDP growth for the next ten years. Within the “buckets” of healthcare spend, no matter the category (hospital care, physicians, prescription drugs, nursing) cost inflation is on the rise.

Part of that is economic (inflation, higher wages, more demand) and part of that is demographic (Baby Boomers). No question that healthcare is and will be one of the fastest growing areas of the market. Who or what captures the economic value from that growth has profound implications across the industry, real estate included.

Investors will not find a healthcare REIT not citing rising spend and aging demographics as a bull catalyst. However, there is criticism of the supply side of the equation in recent years, including bearish calls on plays like New Senior (SNR), Ventas (VTR), or some skilled/assisted nursing home operators themselves like Senior Care Centers. Depending on the asset type, there is often very few barriers to entry – particularly in the senior housing whether it be skilled nursing or assisted living. As much as the industry tries to talk about “viable infill” opportunities in certain markets, even strong locales eventually reach operational parity as competition moves in. Bad markets just cannot be fixed.

Medical office buildings (“MOBs”) are an exception. Unlike other areas of the healthcare real estate market, there are actual barriers to entry. Location matters. On-campus and near-site off campus buildings within high demand medical areas have seen immense value growth. Cap rates have contracted by 400bps since the Great Recession and steadily improved even in recent years which is slightly unusual. All else equal, that implies a 70% increase of property values even on flat net operating income (“NOI”). In actuality, comps have been healthy (low to mid single digits) which has created riches for owners which often has been the hospitals and health systems themselves.

These assets also benefit from a litany of trends in the American healthcare system, the most important of these is the increasing move towards outpatient services. Readers already know procedures are just nutty expensive nowadays. The only way for service providers to somewhat constrain costs is by reducing patient time spent under medical care. Avoiding an overnight hospital stay can save thousands of dollars per patient, often without any change in complication or readmission rates. Insurers are more than willing to allow hospitals to capture higher incremental profits to encourage outpatient work. MOBs, by their nature, rent to tenants providing these kinds of procedures.

As the entire healthcare industry continues to consolidate, health systems will inevitably target expansion within the core areas of their network. Heavy capital investment and infrastructure build-out leads to adjacent MOBs seeing growth. Hospitals, who still remain the majority owners of MOBs, are also highly incentivized to sell. Whenever a hospital is the landlord and rents space to physicians, they run greater risk of violating the Anti-Kickback Statute which bans any type of payment for referrals. Selling to a REIT like Healthcare Trust of America frees up capital while also avoiding any potential allegations of favorable rent treatment.

Healthcare Trust of America

MOBs are the Healthcare Trust of America bread and butter. Nearly the entire portfolio (94% of gross leasable area) is in this type of asset. The company owns 23.2mm square feet, making it the largest publicly-traded pure play in this space. Assets owned are primarily located in major metropolitan markets like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Boston. This has taken quite a bit of hard work and time. Operating a bit under the radar, management has been high-grading the locations of its assets over the past five years. Acquisitions have leaned towards more dense urban areas and there has been some decent efforts made in cutting underperforming properties, including $300mm worth of dispositions last year alone.

While major healthcare REIT players like Welltower (WELL) and Ventas (VTR) have significant MOB portfolios, it isn’t their primary business. On a comparable basis, Healthcare Trust of America has spent more acquiring and developing in this space than anyone else. It shows through the results. Funds from operations (“FFO”) per share has grown at a 5.2% clip since 2014, outstripping the peer group significantly which has struggled to see any material change. The largest contributor to that has been same store sales growth which has run well above average.

Management is very efficient with its capital spend, runs a solid investment grade balance sheet with lower than average leverage, and has still managed to outgrow comps. No wonder shareholder returns have eclipsed other healthcare players as well – and I’d argue that as far as the stock price goes it should have done better.

CEO Scott Peters believes the business can generate substantially similar FFO growth going forward to the rates it has earned in the past. Contributing factors to that remain the same: low single digit same store revenue growth, marginal annual expense savings, and a touch of occupancy rate improvement. The expense growth target an admirable one in particular. Unlike many other REITs in this sector, same store expenses has actually shrunk over the past few years as the portfolio has grown, something most REITs do not accomplish. Tie the cost focus together with acquisition and development and management believes that execution can deliver 8-12% annual shareholder return potential even assuming no multiple contraction over the medium term. This does not rely on further cap rate compression which could also boost the market’s outlook.

Takeaways

Is the dividend exciting? No, 4.5% isn’t anything to write home about. Is this a deep value opportunity or something that might make you rich overnight? No, this is not one of my usual deep value contrarian plays. Is it an investment grade player with long term contracted cash flows, making a dividend cut is incredibly remote? That it is. Using my usual REIT framework, does it trade at a discount to net asset value (“NAV”)? Arguably, yes. With projected $450mm in 2019 NOI and valuing the business at a conservative 5% cap rate, there is about 15% upside to reach NAV.

Not every investment needs to have 30, 50, or 100% projected upside to make sense. This one just works. Investors have seen quite a lot of dividend cuts over the past year.

 

Source: Seeking Alpha

Medical Office Buildings Are Going Godzilla. We’re Talking Big. Really Big.

The movie Godzilla: King of the Monsters opened May 31, with some film reviewers saying that the CG-generated “Beast from the East” seems to be getting bigger with every sequel.

The same might be said of medical office buildings (MOBs), according to a recent report from the Healthcare Capital Markets group with Chicago-based Jones Lang LaSalle.

Many healthcare real estate (HRE) professionals have recently expressed a gnawing sense that more, larger MOBs are being developed. Now, using data provided by HRE research firm Revista, JLL has verified that notion. Many MOBs are indeed becoming more Godzilla-like in size – especially those providing a wide array of services once offered only in inpatient settings.

In fact, JLL’s May 2019 Healthcare Capital Markets Perspective indicates that there are currently 44 future MOBs under construction nationwide that will be larger than 150,000 square feet.

King of the Monsters: The $375 million, 750,000 square foot David H. Koch Center for Cancer Care in New York. The outpatient facility for Memorial Sloan Kettering is slated for completion in 2019. (Rendering courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.)

These mega MOB projects have an aggregate total of 10.9 million square feet and represent 22 percent of all of the medical office projects currently underway in the country, according to JLL. These blockbuster buildings also represent $5.3 billion of investment at an average of $480 per square foot (PSF).

With more and more healthcare services being shifted from hospitals to outpatient facilities, it would only make sense that the average size of many new, technologically advanced MOBs is becoming more monstrous. After all, with many health systems now providing a wide array of services in the MOBs they occupy — including highly sophisticated and technologically advanced surgeries and treatments, including cancer and cardiac care — many of these outpatient facilities have been dubbed “hospitals without beds.”

The new Godzilla movie has received mixed reviews, but MOBs continue to receive five-star ratings from investors. JLL notes that most of the supersized MOB projects on the list — 34 of them — are being self-developed by health systems. But, just as Godzilla prevails in the end, the same might be true for patient MOB investors if some of the projects eventually make it to the investment markets.

“Most of the health systems that are self-developing at this time are some of the best-endowed, highest rated systems with good access to capital and prolific donor bases,” JLL notes. “Certainly, as credit cycles and capital markets change, these outpatient facilities would be ideal targets for monetization and would be desirable investments for the most qualified institutional investors.”

 

Source: HREI