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Investors Target Medical Office In Defensive Play

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Demand for medical office space has mostly normalized, with investors pouring capital into the asset class in what some experts are calling a defensive strategy.

“While some people continue to practice caution amid the emergence of new COVID-19 variants, ultimately many of these appointments must be fulfilled,” Marcus & Millichap’s Alan Pontius writes in a new report. “All the while, the population is aging, which brings along certain medical realities. These factors together underpin the current strong tenant demand for medical offices.”

While traditional offices saw a major rise in vacancy at the onset of the pandemic, medical office vacancy rose just 80 basis points to 9.5% in 2020.  Availability tightened at the tail end of 2020, which drove the average asking rental rate up to $22 per square foot, an increase of nearly 4% from the end of 2019.  Asking rents were highest in San Francisco, followed by New York City, Los Angeles, San Jose, Miami-Dade, Oakland, San Diego, Orange County, Seattle-Tacoma, and Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, vacancy was lowest in 2021 in San Jose, Portland, Louisville, Seattle-Tacoma, and Salt Lake City.

Supply additions expected this year are on par with 2020 figures, with an estimated 9 million square feet of space projected to open this year. Marcus & Millichap predicts that vacancy will decrease to 9.2%, down 20 basis points and 40 basis points above pre-COVID levels.  Meanwhile, the firm predicts rent growth in the neighborhood of 2.5% to an average of $22.61 per square foot, with six markets predicted to hit levels above $30 per square foot led by the Bay Area, New York, Miami-Dad, and Los Angeles.

Staffing shortages remain a headwind for the sector in the short term, as the health crisis continues to hit healthcare worker payrolls. Stated simply, healthcare workers are burned out, and “medical practices are aware of this dilemma,” according to Marcus & Millichap, adding that 73% of those surveyed in a recent national poll ranked staffing as their largest pandemic-related challenge at the start of this year.

“The inability to onboard staff may keep medical practices from expanding this year, combating what are otherwise strong demand tailwinds,” Pontius says.

 

Source: GlobeSt.

New Medical Office Building Pitched For West Orange County In Apopka

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A new medical office building has been proposed for west Orange County.

Longwood-based Dafflyn Property 2 LLC plans to construct a new 11,500-square-foot medical office building at 2106 Plymouth Sorrento Road in Apopka on 1.31 acres, according to city documents. A project that size could cost $1.13 million to build, according to industry standards.

The property, which totals 8.95 acres, already has an Apopka Storage location that was built in 2021 on the site. The medical office building is slated to be built adjacent a 0.68-acre lot that would be preserved for future development. The project will go before Apopka’s development review committee on March 2.

Dafflyn Property 2 LLC bought the vacant site in March 2018 for $1.4 million from a trust, according to the Orange County Property Appraiser. The 2021 appraised value for the property is $1.21 million.

Representatives with the developer were not available for comment. The Dafflyn entity is managed by Central Florida dentists Dr. Robert Bliss, Dr. Bobby Garfinkel and Dr. Dennis Horanic.

Meanwhile, the medical office building market has remained steady during the Covid-19 pandemic. There is more than 16 million square feet of properties that include some sort of medical office under construction, according to CommercialEdge, which is part of Santa Barbara, California real estate data company Yardi Systems Inc.

The changing demographics of the U.S. also will create more medical office demand. About 12.8% of Apopka’s population is comprised of people age 65 and older, compared to 12.3% for Orange County.

By 2030, the U.S. is projected to have more people age 65 and older than those age 18 and younger, according to the Census Bureau.

“As the aging population seeks health services closer to home, we expect to see increased demand for medical office buildings in non-campus settings,” said a CommercialEdge report.

That demand could draw conversions for some suburban office buildings outside of health campus settings, but they would have to fit specific development standards when compared to regular office space, like improved HVAC and different ceiling heights.

 

Source: OBJ

Seniors Housing and Skilled Nursing Could Be Investor Favorites

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Skilled nursing sectors investor favorites, a new report from Marcus & Millichap predicts.

Third quarter data showed that seniors housing move-ins are rising as more residents become vaccinated, with occupancy rising in both segments from July through September. Rents are also up annually by more than 1% across all four levels of care, led by memory care and assisted living.

Skilled nursing’s recovery was a bit more muted, with occupancy at 76.2% in November, down 1,000 basis points over 2019 numbers. But nationally, the average daily rate has increased or held firm in every quarter for more than a decade.

“But the near-term future is opaque with the pandemic still creating uncertainty,” Marcus & Millichap’s Benjamin Kunde notes. “However, seniors housing and skilled nursing facilities remain a key piece of the care spectrum, and the current environment may present unique favorable circumstances for investors. Temporary hurdles coincide with longer-term tailwinds that are becoming more apparent.”

Development has eased as of late, with less than 48,000 seniors housing units breaking ground in October, a 30% decrease from the typical pace. But Kunde says “robust demand is on the horizon, potentially outpacing supply and powering occupancy improvement.” In particular, aging baby boomers are likely to push a demand surge in the future, and they have money to spend: some estimates say the segment holds more than half of all US wealth.

One potential headwind? Labor shortages, which continue to plague both segments. A study by the American Health Care Association and the National Center for Assisted Living shows that three-fourths of respondents believe the staffing situation for assisted living has gotten worse from midyear through September.

“Many operators are utilizing higher compensation to attract staff, which is costly at a time when insurance fees have increased and infrastructure improvements are needed for virus containment,” Kunde notes. “Furthermore, some operators are allocating funds to ramp up marketing efforts, as many facilities are trying to fill rooms at the same time. Endeavors to entice prospective residents are especially important in the near term, as move-ins should accelerate once a broader return to workplaces reduces the number of people able to provide at-home care.”

Meanwhile, investors who pressed pause during the pandemic have a stash of capital and are reentering the market. Sales volume has matched the 2020 total already, and Kunde predicts that momentum will continue as owners list properties following the end of government stimulus funds which helped keep the industry afloat.

“The cost of capital remains low, and potential interest rate hikes and tax changes on the horizon could drive sales activity in the near term,” Kunde says. “Still, many investors are taking a cautionary approach as various short-term headwinds are lingering. Uncertainty in the marketplace and ongoing price discovery adds a wrinkle to getting deals done.”

 

Source: GlobeSt.