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Healthcare Trust Of America: The Best Way To Play Healthcare Trends

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While there is no question the demand outlook looks robust, the supply side of the equation remains a rough one for many property types.

Does that make many healthcare REITs uninvestable? No, but it could never justify pulling the trigger at current valuations.

When it comes to medical office buildings, however, there is a defensible moat here on an operational level and just as many, if not more, of the trends in healthcare benefit the industry. As the largest and most pure play on these assets, Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) trades at a clear discount to its intrinsic value. While not a home run type of purchase today, hitting singles and doubles never hurt anyone.

Overview of Healthcare, Medical Office Building Outlook

Everyone knows the bull thesis for healthcare. The Office of the Actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (“CMS”) recently projected that national health spending will rise 5.5% annually from 2018 to 2027. That means that, once again, healthcare spend will outstrip likely GDP growth for the next ten years. Within the “buckets” of healthcare spend, no matter the category (hospital care, physicians, prescription drugs, nursing) cost inflation is on the rise.

Part of that is economic (inflation, higher wages, more demand) and part of that is demographic (Baby Boomers). No question that healthcare is and will be one of the fastest growing areas of the market. Who or what captures the economic value from that growth has profound implications across the industry, real estate included.

Investors will not find a healthcare REIT not citing rising spend and aging demographics as a bull catalyst. However, there is criticism of the supply side of the equation in recent years, including bearish calls on plays like New Senior (SNR), Ventas (VTR), or some skilled/assisted nursing home operators themselves like Senior Care Centers. Depending on the asset type, there is often very few barriers to entry – particularly in the senior housing whether it be skilled nursing or assisted living. As much as the industry tries to talk about “viable infill” opportunities in certain markets, even strong locales eventually reach operational parity as competition moves in. Bad markets just cannot be fixed.

Medical office buildings (“MOBs”) are an exception. Unlike other areas of the healthcare real estate market, there are actual barriers to entry. Location matters. On-campus and near-site off campus buildings within high demand medical areas have seen immense value growth. Cap rates have contracted by 400bps since the Great Recession and steadily improved even in recent years which is slightly unusual. All else equal, that implies a 70% increase of property values even on flat net operating income (“NOI”). In actuality, comps have been healthy (low to mid single digits) which has created riches for owners which often has been the hospitals and health systems themselves.

These assets also benefit from a litany of trends in the American healthcare system, the most important of these is the increasing move towards outpatient services. Readers already know procedures are just nutty expensive nowadays. The only way for service providers to somewhat constrain costs is by reducing patient time spent under medical care. Avoiding an overnight hospital stay can save thousands of dollars per patient, often without any change in complication or readmission rates. Insurers are more than willing to allow hospitals to capture higher incremental profits to encourage outpatient work. MOBs, by their nature, rent to tenants providing these kinds of procedures.

As the entire healthcare industry continues to consolidate, health systems will inevitably target expansion within the core areas of their network. Heavy capital investment and infrastructure build-out leads to adjacent MOBs seeing growth. Hospitals, who still remain the majority owners of MOBs, are also highly incentivized to sell. Whenever a hospital is the landlord and rents space to physicians, they run greater risk of violating the Anti-Kickback Statute which bans any type of payment for referrals. Selling to a REIT like Healthcare Trust of America frees up capital while also avoiding any potential allegations of favorable rent treatment.

Healthcare Trust of America

MOBs are the Healthcare Trust of America bread and butter. Nearly the entire portfolio (94% of gross leasable area) is in this type of asset. The company owns 23.2mm square feet, making it the largest publicly-traded pure play in this space. Assets owned are primarily located in major metropolitan markets like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Boston. This has taken quite a bit of hard work and time. Operating a bit under the radar, management has been high-grading the locations of its assets over the past five years. Acquisitions have leaned towards more dense urban areas and there has been some decent efforts made in cutting underperforming properties, including $300mm worth of dispositions last year alone.

While major healthcare REIT players like Welltower (WELL) and Ventas (VTR) have significant MOB portfolios, it isn’t their primary business. On a comparable basis, Healthcare Trust of America has spent more acquiring and developing in this space than anyone else. It shows through the results. Funds from operations (“FFO”) per share has grown at a 5.2% clip since 2014, outstripping the peer group significantly which has struggled to see any material change. The largest contributor to that has been same store sales growth which has run well above average.

Management is very efficient with its capital spend, runs a solid investment grade balance sheet with lower than average leverage, and has still managed to outgrow comps. No wonder shareholder returns have eclipsed other healthcare players as well – and I’d argue that as far as the stock price goes it should have done better.

CEO Scott Peters believes the business can generate substantially similar FFO growth going forward to the rates it has earned in the past. Contributing factors to that remain the same: low single digit same store revenue growth, marginal annual expense savings, and a touch of occupancy rate improvement. The expense growth target an admirable one in particular. Unlike many other REITs in this sector, same store expenses has actually shrunk over the past few years as the portfolio has grown, something most REITs do not accomplish. Tie the cost focus together with acquisition and development and management believes that execution can deliver 8-12% annual shareholder return potential even assuming no multiple contraction over the medium term. This does not rely on further cap rate compression which could also boost the market’s outlook.

Takeaways

Is the dividend exciting? No, 4.5% isn’t anything to write home about. Is this a deep value opportunity or something that might make you rich overnight? No, this is not one of my usual deep value contrarian plays. Is it an investment grade player with long term contracted cash flows, making a dividend cut is incredibly remote? That it is. Using my usual REIT framework, does it trade at a discount to net asset value (“NAV”)? Arguably, yes. With projected $450mm in 2019 NOI and valuing the business at a conservative 5% cap rate, there is about 15% upside to reach NAV.

Not every investment needs to have 30, 50, or 100% projected upside to make sense. This one just works. Investors have seen quite a lot of dividend cuts over the past year.

 

Source: Seeking Alpha

Medical Office Buildings Are Going Godzilla. We’re Talking Big. Really Big.

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The movie Godzilla: King of the Monsters opened May 31, with some film reviewers saying that the CG-generated “Beast from the East” seems to be getting bigger with every sequel.

The same might be said of medical office buildings (MOBs), according to a recent report from the Healthcare Capital Markets group with Chicago-based Jones Lang LaSalle.

Many healthcare real estate (HRE) professionals have recently expressed a gnawing sense that more, larger MOBs are being developed. Now, using data provided by HRE research firm Revista, JLL has verified that notion. Many MOBs are indeed becoming more Godzilla-like in size – especially those providing a wide array of services once offered only in inpatient settings.

In fact, JLL’s May 2019 Healthcare Capital Markets Perspective indicates that there are currently 44 future MOBs under construction nationwide that will be larger than 150,000 square feet.

King of the Monsters: The $375 million, 750,000 square foot David H. Koch Center for Cancer Care in New York. The outpatient facility for Memorial Sloan Kettering is slated for completion in 2019. (Rendering courtesy of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.)

These mega MOB projects have an aggregate total of 10.9 million square feet and represent 22 percent of all of the medical office projects currently underway in the country, according to JLL. These blockbuster buildings also represent $5.3 billion of investment at an average of $480 per square foot (PSF).

With more and more healthcare services being shifted from hospitals to outpatient facilities, it would only make sense that the average size of many new, technologically advanced MOBs is becoming more monstrous. After all, with many health systems now providing a wide array of services in the MOBs they occupy — including highly sophisticated and technologically advanced surgeries and treatments, including cancer and cardiac care — many of these outpatient facilities have been dubbed “hospitals without beds.”

The new Godzilla movie has received mixed reviews, but MOBs continue to receive five-star ratings from investors. JLL notes that most of the supersized MOB projects on the list — 34 of them — are being self-developed by health systems. But, just as Godzilla prevails in the end, the same might be true for patient MOB investors if some of the projects eventually make it to the investment markets.

“Most of the health systems that are self-developing at this time are some of the best-endowed, highest rated systems with good access to capital and prolific donor bases,” JLL notes. “Certainly, as credit cycles and capital markets change, these outpatient facilities would be ideal targets for monetization and would be desirable investments for the most qualified institutional investors.”

 

Source: HREI

Investor Demand For Medical Office Buildings Has Gone Global

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Demand for medical office properties is so strong, even foreign investors alien to the American healthcare system are shopping for them

“Investors from Singapore and Australia are shifting capital to the U.S. to invest in medical real estate,” CBRE Vice Chairman Lee Asher said during Bisnow’s Atlanta State of Healthcare event last week.

But as they come, Asher said he is spending more time educating foreign investors on the ins and outs of the American healthcare system.

“The foreign capital, it takes them about two years to understand how healthcare works in the U.S.,” Asher said. “There’s plenty of new capital, but the key is they need domestic operating players.”

Asher was among medical real estate experts at the event who discussed a wide range of topics affecting the industry, from the surge of new medical office construction and the merger mania occurring within the healthcare industry to the effects of the possible dismantling of Georgia’s certificate of need system.

Of course, foreign players are only a portion of the investors seeking stakes in medical office real estate. But increasing revenues, merger and acquisition activity and overall health system growth has been attracting investors from Asia, Europe, the Middle East and even Africa and Latin America, Modern Healthcare recently reported.

According to a 2019 Marcus & Millichap report, medical office sales had their largest growth in transaction velocity, at 13%, since 2015, nearly double the rate compared to other commercial property investments.

“Hospital-affiliated facilities and outpatient surgery centers with long leases and annual rent increases are most desirable, with initial returns ranging in the mid-5% to 7% span,” Marcus & Millichap officials said in the report.

Part of medical office’s attraction is its stability. Panelists said during the Great Recession, those investments largely remained untouched by the overall real estate malaise. Investors today see the sector as one of the best to weather economic downturns, especially as baby boomers age and require more healthcare.

“Also, many of the tenants — especially tenants with lots of medical equipment, like imaging groups or cancer treatment centers — book long leases and rarely, if ever, undergo the headaches of a relocation,” MB Real Estate Services Senior Vice President Brian Burks said.

Ackerman & Co. President Kris Miller said when his firm first started to develop medical office campuses more than two decades ago, it required a significant amount of personal capital and hard work to find investors. Today, the story is completely different.

“We all know racetracks make money, but it’s hard to find a banker who is going to finance one, and that was true with medical office,” Miller said. “There are just so many people who want to buy this right now. We can sell every medical office asset we stabilize, and we can sell that asset 10 times at roughly the same price.”

“Construction costs are complicating the growth of physicians and hospital groups. Even with developers willing to capitalize and build new medical facilities for tenants, the groups still need to have the financial wherewithal to handle the higher rents,” HealthAmerica Realty Group CEO Tommy Tift said. “That is probably our biggest challenge, and also that will be physicians’ … biggest challenge.”

 

Source: Bisnow